Quotes of the Day
As Jiang Zemin and George W. Bush chowed down on a barbecue lunch last week at Bush's Crawford ranch retreat in Texas, they were the picture of congeniality-even taking a tour of the ranch in Bush's pickup truck. But was this just a pose for the cameras, or the beginning of a genuinely warm friendship between the two giant nations? Neither. For both countries, being pragmatic and reaching an accommodation with each other has become a matter of the highest policy priority. It's not that they want so much to be with one another, but that they cannot afford not to.
Washington's strategic plate is full. The U.S. faces the task of uprooting al-Qaeda in some 60 countries, and is trying to hold together an Afghanistan subject to enormous centrifugal forces. The Israel-Palestine morass can suck in the U.S. at any moment. There are probably nukes in North Korea. And America is poised to invade Iraq?a country the size of Germany?with no discernible exit plan and little clear idea about how the Muslim world will respond.
The evidence is all around us. China's surprising cooperation with the U.S. after Sept. 11. Beijing's muted response despite the Bush Administration's de facto upgrading of relations with Taiwan. An equally taciturn response to Japan dispatching naval forces to the Arabian Gulf, an expansion of Tokyo's reach that normally would spark loud complaints from Beijing about Japan's resurgent militarism. And in the U.N. Security Council, a China that says not no but nothing, signaling its quiet acquiescence even as France and Russia actively slow a U.S.-sponsored resolution on Iraq.
Beijing's strategic view is that the U.S. has the greatest bearing on China's core domestic and foreign policy objectives. China requires economic growth to achieve stability, and the U.S. takes 40% of China's exports, directly and indirectly employs millions of Chinese workers, and is the single largest foreign direct investor there. Furthermore, learning from the Soviet experience, Beijing wants to avoid bankrupting itself in a futile arms race with America. As for Taiwan, though the U.S. is Taipei's principal guarantor, not even the Bush Administration is prepared to support independence. For the status quo to continue, Beijing has to engage Washington, not rebuff it.
At home, moreover, Beijing has plenty to preoccupy it. Unemployment is high and rising, and economic inequalities are widening more rapidly in China than in any other major country. Many Chinese complain that corruption is worse now than under Chiang Kai-shek. The impulse to address this is seen in the recent arrest of some of China's wealthiest citizens and those accused of being their official patrons. The political system desperately needs reform. And China's leadership will take time to gel?even though now, with his key protégé Zeng Qinghong apparently ready to accede to the Politburo's Standing Committee, Jiang appears increasingly likely to step down as planned, safe in the knowledge that his influence will remain secure with Zeng around. As Jiang cryptically put it before leaving for the U.S.: "It's just too chilly to remain at this high altitude."
Sept. 11 gave both China and the U.S. an opportunity to forge a strong security relationship. They are using it in the war against terrorism, and they will doubtlessly do so in pressuring North Korea to peacefully give up its nukes. More than ever, in a dangerous world, China and the U.S. are locked in a mutually-beneficial embrace. This is the message from Crawford. America doesn't need China as an enemy, and China doesn't want America as an enemy. This is so today and it can remain so for a long time.
- David Lampton
- The U.S. and China may not be allies, but they clearly need each other